Darren McFadden News
The BCS Championship Race: A Fan's Rooting Guide
ESPN's resident BCS expert Brad Edwards has his work cut out for him in attempting to handicap this year's race to the BCS Championship and predicting the field for the Bowl Championship Series games.
So... who's going where? At this point,
it's anyone's game.
And that means Dec. 1 is setting up like an old-school New Year's Day. With LSU playing in the SEC title game, Oregon hosting Oregon State and two of the Big 12 teams squaring off in a championship tilt on that date, there should be at least three matchups of great significance in the waning hours of the regular season. And if the upset bug starts biting, West Virginia's rivalry game with Pittsburgh that day also could be important.
If Kansas gets past BCS #5 Missouri, then the outcome of a Kansas - Oklahoma game for the Big XII championship is going to hold a lot of weight in the minds of the voters. It would be very difficult for the polls to deny an updefeated Jayhawks team a spot in the BCS championship. By the same token, a one-loss Sooner team that just knocked off a team with Kansas's resume probably looks pretty good, too.
Either way,
Oregon could end up on the outside looking in, as we said in
our post last week regarding style points.
Perhaps no team has more need to earn style points than Oregon. The Ducks (8-1) have remaining games at Arizona (4-6), at UCLA (5-5) and versus Oregon State (6-4). Simply winning those games will not be overly impressive to voters. With Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri all having the chance to beat at least one top-10 team down the stretch, Oregon might need to win big just to hold on to its No. 2 position.
And even that might not be enough.
At this point, it appears that LSU just needs to win out. If the Tigers falter, then Oregon probably ends up in the BCS Championship - provided the Ducks take care of business.
Kansas, by most indications, will get a shot at the BCS championship if they win out.
If the Jayhawks falter on their way to the Big XII Championship, then Oregon likely gets the #2 spot. But if an undefeated KU gets knocked off by one-loss Oklahoma, it is very likely that the Sooners will end up in the BCS Championship.
Unless all heck breaks loose, Missouri will not be in the BCS Championship. Even wins over Kansas and Oklahoma wouldn't lift Mizzou to the big game if both Oregon and LSU win out.
So... let me try my hand at a quick-y rooting guide:
LSU Tigers to win out, no SEC teams upset, VaTech to win out
Kansas - KU to win out, an Oregon loss, higher ranked Big XII teams win in conference, an LSU loss
Oregon - Ducks to win out, no Pac10 upsets, against LSU & Kansas, root against higher ranked Big XII teams
Oklahoma Sooners- OU to win out, root for higher ranked BigXII teams & Pac10 upsets, root against Oregon
Pretty bare bones, but that's the essentials. Of course, the way this season has gone, it's just as likely that every top team will pick up one more loss and then it will really be a twisted mess.
There's a little little clarity when you get to the BCS games, in general.
As I said last week, an Ohio State loss has all but eliminated the
Ohio State Buckeyes from the National Championship picture. The annual Michigan-OSU rivalry will set the Big 10's spot in the annual Rose Bowl Game -- most likely against Oregon. Upsets within the Big 10 may have capped the conference at just one BCS bowl bid.
Hawaii's chances of even sniffing a BCS game hinge on the status of
QB Colt Brennan for their remaining three games. Brennan took a nasty shot in the 4th quarter and left the game with a concussion. It goes without saying that a loss would elimiate Hawaii from BCS consideration.
Edwards says that Hawaii needs more help than most pundits may realize.
Both [Hawaii and Boise State] could be relying on the provision that allows a non-automatic-qualifying conference champion to earn an at-large bid by finishing in the top 16 AND ranking higher than an automatic-qualifying conference champion. For that to happen, the Warriors and Broncos need help this weekend. If Michigan beats Ohio State or Cincinnati beats West Virginia, the opportunity could be there. If neither of those take place, Cinderella might be at home scrubbing the floors during the BCS ball.
As I've said all season long, I don't think Hawaii will be in a BCS game this year.
With three teams in the BCS top five, the Big XII conference certainly looks like a lock to get two BCS game bids; however, there are several schools of thought as to which two teams would get the call.
If Kansas or Missouri win the conference, then it would be a near certainty that Oklahoma would be headed to the Fiesta Bowl. But if the Sooners win the Big XII championship, the conference's second team is likely to be Texas as an at-large team. Why? It's a simple matter of economics. Texas - perhaps more than any other potential at-large team - travels well. If you put the Longhorns in any BCS game, you're guaranteed a sellout, whereas a Kansas-Virginia matchup... not so much.
As for other at-large bids, I think it's likely that the Pac10 and SEC pull in two teams - meaning Arizona State and Tennessee/Georgia. After that, you have to go further down the list to find the next big draw, because you couldn't take another SEC/Big XII/Pac10 team. That leaves one BCS game picking Virginia Tech. And given the year the Hokies have endured and strength of their season, that would seem like a solid, marketable selection.
So... what does all this mean? With so many at-large teams in the mix this year, there's no telling where any team might end up, with the exception of the Rose Bowl. The at-large picking order this year is Orange, then Fiesta, and then Sugar.
Here's my best guess:
BCS Championship: LSU v Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Oregon v Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State v Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v West Virginia
Orange Bowl: Texas v Clemson
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